Monday March 19, 2007

I’ve done quite a few fantasy baseball drafts so far this season, but the one tonight is the big whammy. It is a 10-team mixed keeper league with some friends and family. This is the first season of the league, so there are no incoming keepers. I’ll do a blog-through of my impressions on each round.

Round 1-

Team 1- Albert Pujols
Team 2- Jose Reyes
Team 3- Alfonso Soriano
Team 4- Johan Santana
Team 5- Chase Utley
Team 6- Alex Rodriguez
Team 7- Ryan Howard
Team 8- David Ortiz
Team 9- Ichiro Suzuki
Team 10- Vladimir Guerrero

Not sure everyone realizes this is a keeper draft, so it follows the path of a one-year league mostly. First round goes mostly as planned, Ortiz is a little early for my taste, but its a reasonable pick. Suzuki was a surprise this early for sure, but a contract year rise could be the reasoning, but that still doesn't work for me. Even with a contract year I don’t see the rationale for drafting him in the first round, he could put up his best season ever and only be a marginal late first round pick. Ryan Howard falls to seventh mostly because Team 4 wanted him but didn’t act fast enough and auto-picked Santana.

Round 2-

Team 10- David Wright
Team 9- Joe Mauer
Team 8- Justin Morneau
Team 7- Carl Crawford
Team 6- Miguel Cabrera
Team 5- Travis Hafner
Team 4- Carlos Beltran
Team 3- Miguel Tejada
Team 2- Mark Teixeira
Team 1- Manny Ramirez

Team 9 isn’t winning me over with another premature pick. Mauer may or may not be the best catcher this year, but there is still so much talent that is better at this spot in the draft. Morneau also goes a bit early, but if he repeats or improves last year’s stats, he will earn the draft spot. Crawford and Cabrera went later than they should have, considering Crawford should be a first-round lock especially in keeper leagues.

Round 3-

Team 1- Sizemore
Team 2- Berkman
Team 3- Jeter
Team 4- Holliday
Team 5- D. Lee
Team 6- Bay
Team 7- Carpenter
Team 8- C. Lee
Team 9- Zambrano
Team 10- A. Jones

Sizemore dropped through the second round, which is unexpected. I expect this to be the last year that you’ll be able to get Grady outside of the first round. This round went along pretty standard, with Derek Lee going earlier than you will see in most drafts. A calculated risk, but it could pay off if he can produce another healthy, MVP-type season. I will continue my distaste for Carpenter, but I can’t fault Team 7 for taking him here.

Round 4-

Team 10- M. Young
Team 9- Rollins
Team 8- Oswalt
Team 7- A. Ramirez
Team 6- Halladay
Team 5- H. Ramirez
Team 4- Abreu
Team 3- Konerko
Team 2- Peavy
Team 1- Webb

Pitching starting to fly off the board as four of the ten picks were pitchers in this round. I can’t condone taking Young over Rollins at short. Rollins will steal a ton more, hit more homeruns and score more runs. Young might make more hustle plays on the field, but as a fantasy owner that just means more opportunity for injury. The Ramirezes are both pretty good value at their spots. Hanley is basically Jose Reyes-lite three rounds later. If he takes a step forward he’ll match Reyes’s ’06 stats.

Round 5-

Team 1- Atkins
Team 2- F. Rodriguez
Team 3- Wells
Team 4- Roberts
Team 5- Nathan
Team 6- Furcal
Team 7- V. Martinez
Team 8- McCann
Team 9- Swisher
Team 10- Damon

Atkins, K-Rod, and Wells all were good values and went lower than average. Victor Martinez and McCann 35 and 36 draft spots lower than Mauer and should perform similarly, if not better. I wanted Swisher, but this is a round or two before I was expecting to get him. He is a budding star, and added 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason. I expect a very Adam Dunn-like season, with 20 points added on top of Dunn’s batting average.

Round 6-

Team 10- Dye
Team 9- Guillen
Team 8- Mussina
Team 7- Figgins
Team 6- Cano
Team 5- Zimmerman
Team 4- Hall
Team 3- Ryan
Team 2- Sheets
Team 1- Delgado

Mussina is very questionable here, with Sheets, Kazmir, Bonderman, and Lackey all still available. If Sheets can stay healthy, he can be third or fourth-round value. I like the Zimmerman pick because, contrary to popular belief among these drafters, this is a keeper league and he will get even better and Washington can’t stay this bad forever.

Round 7-

Team 1- Rivera
Team 2- Kazmir
Team 3- Pierre
Team 4- Bonderman
Team 5- Lackey
Team 6- Matsui
Team 7- Wagner
Team 8- Rolen
Team 9- Matsuzaka
Team 10- Street

Pretty ordinary round. Bonderman and Lackey might put up better overall stats than Kazmir this season because their teams can win. But in the long run, Kazmir should be more valuable. Teams started to realize that closer depth was slowly thinning, so three went in this round. It was hardly a run, more of subtle trend.

Round 8-

Team 10- Thome
Team 9- Hoffman
Team 8- Uggla
Team 7- Glaus
Team 6- Sexson
Team 5- Smoltz
Team 4- Jenks
Team 3- F. Lopez
Team 2- Weeks
Team 1- F. Hernandez

Uggla, Sexson, and Lopez are a little early for my taste, but repeats by Uggla and Lopez and a rebound by Sexson could have them all earning their spots. Weeks is a little concerning because of his questionable wrist health, but if he is okay, then he’ll be a top-3 second basemen by next year.

Round 9-

Team 1- Willis
Team 2- Lidge
Team 3- Dunn
Team 4- Giambi
Team 5- Putz
Team 6- Fielder
Team 7- Harang
Team 8- Renteria
Team 9- Schmidt
Team 10- C. Jones

The fact that Harang went after Willis shows just how disrespected Harang is. Can Lidge return to form? Dunn here is a much better value than Sexson a round earlier because he’ll hit more homeruns and is younger, with a better chance to improve that average. Fielder is nice here in a keeper league. If Putz repeats last season, he is a steal this late. Chipper will be solid as always, for the 95 games that he plays.

Round 10-

Team 10- Phillips
Team 9- Sheffield
Team 8- Ordonez
Team 7- Myers
Team 6- Kendrick
Team 5- Francoeur
Team 4- Ray
Team 3- Patterson
Team 2- D. Young
Team 1- Johjima

I dislike the first three picks of this round and love the second four. Personal issues aside, Myers will be close to the top of the strikeout list. Fancoeur still hasn’t figured out that you can take a walk in the grand game of baseball (he has fewer walks this spring than vowels in his last name) but he can rake when he is on one of his hot streaks. Delmon Young was a great value in Round 10 in a keeper league even though (as one of my fellow drafters so kindly pointed out to me) throwing bats is not a standard 5X5 category.

Last ten rounds of the draft next time…
-Adam